most important analysis shared by PlanB

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The latest monthly analysis of the Bitcoin market and the expected bull market is now available from PlanB, one of the most renowned influencers in the Bitcoin world. European cryptocurrency portal “Webharom” calls out the most important analysis shared by PlanB.

The full analysis is available here:

Reaching an Inflexion Point

In the first graph shared by PlanB, we see the well-known stock-to-flow chart, color-coded to make it easier to understand. In this chart, the expected price of BTC based on the stock-to-flow model is shown in gray, while colored dots tell us how long until the halving. These dots are predicted to turn red in just two months because of the upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving.

Looking at past market trends, we can see a clear pattern: when the “days to halving” indicator changes from blue to red, significant shifts usually follow.

PlanB highlights two main points from this chart: firstly, that the price has recently returned to what the stock-to-flow model predicts; and secondly, that any major market changes after the halving are likely to take a few months to kick in, rather than happening right away.

Bitcoin Market Cycles

The next chart, illustrating the cyclicality of Bitcoin, has one key assertion: from this point on, the actual bull market begins. What we’ve seen so far corresponds to the so-called “accumulation phase”.

PlanB suggests: sit back, relax, and enjoy the ride!

Just like in previous historical Bitcoin bull markets, the one starting now may also see double-digit declines – the price may correct by as much as 20-30% in a single day. It’s worth paying attention to and keeping in mind during trading.

Unexpectedly High RSI

The third chart shows the relationship between Bitcoin cycles and the RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator. At the moment, the RSI is much higher than the usual 55-65 range seen at halvings, suggesting a short-term correction is possible. However, it also points out that the average RSI of previous Bitcoin bull markets ranged from 75 to 90.

Finally, the last two charts show that more than 99% of Bitcoin owners are now in an outstanding profit. The red line represents the price of Bitcoin, while the other three lines show the entry price and its moving averages. On average, Bitcoin investors are currently up by 60%, and according to PlanB, it’s possible that the price of Bitcoin will never drop below $49,000 again.



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